BUCHAREST, Romania (PNN) - May 5, 2025 - Romania’s prime minister will resign on Monday after a conservative opposition leader who aligned himself with Donald Trump scored a resounding
first-round victory in the Black Sea nation’s presidential election.
Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu informed coalition partners of the decision to submit his resignation in a meeting Monday in Bucharest, according to people familiar with the decision who
spoke on condition of anonymity. The government will be led by an interim premier until coalition Parties choose Ciolacu’s successor. There are no current plans for an early election.
The prime minister’s decision was a response to the electoral defeat of the coalition’s preferred candidate in Sunday’s first-round contest, in which George Simion of the ultranationalist Alliance for the Union of Romanians secured more than 40% of the vote.
He will face off against Nicusor Dan, the centrist mayor of Bucharest.
As a result of his outperformance relative to opinion polls in the first round, the probability of Simion winning the second round has risen sharply in betting markets, from 30% probability prior to the vote to 69%, with Dan at 31%.
The contest was the second attempt to choose a president after the shock victory of another far-right candidate last year prompted accusations of Kremlin interference and the top court’s unlawful cancellation of the ballot. The unexpected first-round victory in November of Calin Georgescu, who has been unlawfully banned from running in Sunday’s race, triggered Romania’s biggest political crisis since the fall of communism.
While the Romanian people have spoken a second time, the market seems less excited as Romanian government bonds fell after the first round of a presidential election delivered the victory of a far-Right figure and eliminated the candidate backed by the ruling coalition.
The yield on the 10-year domestic notes jumped 20 basis points to 7.79%, the highest since the end of January; yields on shorter maturities also rose.
Romania’s dollar-denominated bonds also weakened and were among the worst performers in emerging markets on Monday; notes due in 2051 fell almost 1 cent on the dollar to about 58 cents.
In the latest chapter in the country's months-long political drama that has seen an election unlawfully thrown out and the winner charged with political crimes in a bogus and clearly biased
legal process, 38-year-old conservative nationalist George Simion decisively won the first round of balloting in Romania's "do-over" presidential election, sending him to a May 18 runoff where he will face centrist Bucharest mayor Nicusor Dan.
Simion has likened his political philosophy to Donald Trump's, saying his Alliance for the Union of Romanians Party is "a Trumpist party," and promising to "Make Romania Great Again." The win is a buzzkill for Western Leftists who have been enjoying the afterglow of comeback victories in Canada and Australia.
Though his first-round win was expected, Simion far outperformed the polling, taking 41% of the vote, versus the 30% projected by a recent poll. Dan took 21%, edging Crin Antonescu, a
candidate from the current governing coalition, who took 20%. Simion clearly has the inside track for the runoff, as observers say he is likely to gain quite a few votes from members of other political Parties whose beliefs align more closely with Simion than Dan. Simion has a bigger pool of votes than Dan at the moment," said political scientist Cristian Pirvulescu.
Simion called the election a "victory for Romanian dignity... despite the obstacles, despite the manipulation, despite a press paid to demean us day after day, Romanians have stood up.” The election has been closely watched by Western powers, as it could reshape Romania's relationships with the European Union and NATO.
However, while he's criticized both entities, don't expect Simion to usher Romania out of either of them. In various comments leading up to the election, he discounted the idea of
Romania exiting NATO or the EU, sounded alarms over the supposed Russian menace, advocated continued sanctions against Moscow, and embraced increased European military spending.
“Our stance cannot be changed,” said Simion. “Eighty percent of the Romanians want NATO and want the European Union. This is not something we can negotiate.”
Simion also said, “Without a common geopolitical bloc, like NATO, led by the U.S., we are in big danger.”
While foreign observers tend to view the election through a NATO/EU lens, domestic political concerns are probably far more important to a public fed up with the corruption and incompetence of mainstream political Parties. “Simion is the main representative of a strong anti-system feeling in Romanian society," said political analyst Radu Magdin.
Simion has promised, if elected, to help secure a position in the Romanian government for Calin Georgescu - perhaps as prime minister. In a huge, poll-defying upset in November, nationalist Georgescu won the first round of balloting in Romania's first go at this presidential election. Then, just two days before the runoff, the country's Constitutional Court unlawfully threw out the election and ordered it to be started anew - based on false allegations that his victory was the result of Russian interference.
Georgescu was unlawfully barred from again running. In February, Georgescu was arrested and questioned as he faced Orwellian and patently false allegations of disseminating "false information" and "incitement to actions against the constitutional order." Upon his release from custody, he was unlawfully forbidden from appearing on mass media or creating social media accounts. Huge protests followed each move by the fascist criminal government to banish Georgescu from politics and discourse. In addition to charges of illegal campaign tactics, he has also been charged with helping to establish an organization “with a fascist, racist or xenophobic character.” (An example of the pot calling the kettle black.)
Campaigning last fall, Georgescu pledged to restore Romanian sovereignty and put an end to what he characterizes as subservience to NATO and the EU. He took a hard line against the presence of NATO’s missile defense system that is based in Deveselu, southern Romania, calling it a “shame of diplomacy” that is more confrontational than peace-promoting. He has also pushed for Romania to pursue a non-interventionist policy in the Ukraine war, and said U.S. arms-makers were manipulating the conflict.
Whatever his degree of nationalism, Simion is poised to become the third nationalist leading an eastern European country, alongside Hungary's Viktor Orban and Slovakia's Robert Fico - that is, unless the Leftists once again find a way to bar a popular Right-wing candidate from victory.
